4. Expected Results
This study will lead to the quantification of a critical portion of the global carbon
budget in high northern latitudes-emissions from fires in the boreal forest. The data
will allow us to determine how much of the interannual variability in the atmospheric
CO2 record for this region is due to emissions from fire.
In addition, this estimate is critical for determining net biome productivity for this
major terrestrial carbon reservoir. While it is generally accepted that the boreal forest
represents a significant terrestrial carbon sink, it has been suggested that the
strength of this sink might be significantly reduced (or even reversed so that the
boreal forest is a net carbon source) as a result of increased fire activity due to
climate warming (Kasischke et al. 1995b). Estimates of fire carbon emissions for the
North American boreal forest show that in some areas, more than 200 g C m-2 yr-1 was released during
the period of 1980 to 1994, which far exceeds NEP values for this region (40 to 80 g C
m-2 yr-1) (French et al.
1999).
The outcome of this study will be important to several groups of scientists. First,
the results will be important to scientists quantifying the global terrestrial carbon
budget. In order to determine net biome production, emissions from biomass burning are
needed. Second, the results will also be important to those scientists trying to
quantify the variations in the atmospheric CO2 record.
Finally, in addition to producing estimates of CO2
emissions, we will also provide estimates of emissions of other important greenhouse
gases from fire, such as methane and carbon monoxide.The use of the unique data sets
provided by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise is central to the success of this project.
In particular, the estimates of fire location and area provided through analysis of
AVHRR, MODIS and Landsat imagery and the estimates of fire severity produced from
Landsat imagery are critical to reducing uncertainties in boreal forest fire emissions
of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.