Is the reported collapse of commercial farming in Zimbabwe reality?

A satellite remote sensing study

Figure 1. These are three images of Zimbabwe; the first is compiled of satellite images from around the year 1990, the second is a political map of Zimbabwe, the third is also composed of satellite images from the year 2000.

Abstract

     While many have attributed specific failures of Zimbabwe to the chaos of the ‘fast-track’ land redistribution project; little is known about the actual impacts of the program on the use of the land. In order to firmly connect the ‘fast-track’ program with the concurrent rising inflation and abrupt drop in agricultural production; a tangible measure of the effects must be found. This analysis seeks to quantify any resultant change in agricultural land use through visual analysis of central pivot irrigation systems prevalence over time.

Introduction

• The Land Redistribution Project started with independence in 1980. Zimbabwe sought to ‘normalize the abnormal’ by encouraging white citizens to sell farms to black citizens.

• In 2000 a ‘fast-track resettlement’ program was adopted – jambanja - meaning smash and grab, which was illegal but encouraged by the ruling party.

• The fast-track program, led to farm occupations, evictions of the commercial farmers and vandalism leading to the destruction of buildings, farm machinery and infrastructure such as center pivot irrigation (CPI) systems.

• This dramatic shift in both size of farms and type of land manager has been felt throughout the country.

• Many have attributed economic and political instability, including hyperinflation (now estimated at 2.2 million percent) and lost agricultural output to this program.

• This analysis of land use change associated with fast track resettlement; seeks to quantify the level of land use change.

Data and Methods

• Landsat images were acquired for 1990, 2000 and 2008. For 1990 and 2000 data was available for the entire country (24 scenes) but only 1 scene for 2008.

• Bands 3, 4, and 5 were made into false color composites and the scenes were mosaiced to provide a complete view of Zimbabwe.

• Center pivot irrigation (CPI) was selected as the quantitative measure of commercial farming activity, since CPIs are easy to distinguish from natural land forms.

• The number of CPIs found in grid cells across the entire country were counted visually.

• The area with the greatest amount of change was found to be to the northwest of Harare, the capital city, where there were data for all three years and a comparison of the change in pivot irrigation was possible.

Figure 2. In order to analyze central pivot irrigation in Zimbabwe in a systematic way across time; a grid was imposed a. By counting units in each cell tables b and c were produced. A comparison of these results, shown in table d, identifies the area most prone to change in agriculture. This area is located north west of the city of Harare.

• After comparing the number of CPI’s for the country of Zimbabwe in 1990 and 2000 it was clear that there had been a marked rise in their number, presumably indicating investment. This increase was particularly concentrated in the area north west of Harare, the capital.

• All but 1 of 244 CPI’s found in this area in 2000 were constructed since 1990, and nearly half of those found in the 2000 image were not found in the 2008 image.

• From 1990 to 2000, before the fast-track program was instituted, the government encouraged commercial farming, and it seems this was reflected in an increase in CPI systems.

• By 2008, however, a great deal of land was occupied and commercial farming was drastically reduced.  

• Knowing the proportion of land use change in Zimbabwe provides an accurate measure of the impacts of the fast track program.

• It seems that by 2008, all the gains from 1990 to 2000 had been lost.